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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 10 at the 75

Minnesota Vikings 7 – Cleveland Browns 8

What Actually Happened

(:56) 3-J.Berry punts 47 yards to CLE 28, Center-42-A.DePaola. 25-D.Felton to CLE 36 for 8 yards (57-R.Connelly; 44-J.Metellus).

The Three Options

GO -1.50 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 75, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 32, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model