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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 9

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 30-C.Ham left guard to CLE 8 for 1 yard (95-M.Garrett; 22-G.Delpit).

The Three Options

GO +3.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.62 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 9, worth +0.43 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth -0.33 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model