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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 34

Cleveland Browns 11 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 3-C.McLaughlin 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 34, worth -1.43 EP
KICK +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.92 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 44, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model