4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 6

Cleveland Browns 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at MIN 17 for -11 yards (97-E.Griffen).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 6, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model