Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 18 at the 83

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

(12:33) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to BUF 34, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-32-G.Wallow.

The Three Options

GO -3.49 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
74% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 83, worth -5.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model