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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 2

Buffalo Bills 13 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(:26) 2-T.Bass 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

The Three Options

GO +3.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.56 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 2, worth +0.11 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.13 EP