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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 6

Houston Texans 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(10:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Mills pass incomplete short right to 31-D.Johnson (55-J.Hughes). Pass tipped at line.

The Three Options

GO +2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.05 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 6, worth -0.17 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model