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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 89

Buffalo Bills 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(8:47) 3-M.Haack punts 44 yards to HOU 45, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-A.Roberts to BUF 49 for 6 yards (44-T.Matakevich, 9-A.Smith).

The Three Options

GO -1.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 84, worth +0.97 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 89, worth -4.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 46, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP