Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 3 – Indianapolis Colts 7

(1:50) 5-M.Palardy punts 53 yards to IND 18, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -3.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model