Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Miami Dolphins 3

(:25) 8-R.Sanchez punts 37 yards to MIA 29, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +0.93 EP
54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 66, worth -2.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model