4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 3 – Indianapolis Colts 14

What Actually Happened

(6:27) 5-M.Palardy punts 56 yards to IND 12, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines to IND 11 for -1 yards (22-E.Campbell, 44-B.Ferguson).

The Three Options

GO -0.88 EP
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model