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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 43 yards to IND 25, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 21-N.Hines MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by MIA-44-B.Ferguson at IND 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.97 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 26, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model