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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 14 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(:57) 3-R.Blankenship 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.19 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.42 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model