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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 25

Indianapolis Colts 17 – Miami Dolphins 3

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 3-R.Blankenship 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.47 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 35, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model