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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 20

Miami Dolphins 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 7-J.Sanders 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-B.Ferguson, Holder-5-M.Palardy.

The Three Options

GO +2.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +5.14 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 20, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
What Happened
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 30, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model