Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 18 at the 70

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

(6:09) 8-R.Sanchez punts 56 yards to MIA 14, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-J.Grant to MIA 13 for -1 yards (16-A.Dulin).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.34 EP
74% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 70, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model