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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 7

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 14

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 4-J.Elliott 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.96 EP
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.01 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 7, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model