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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 35

Philadelphia Eagles 23 – Kansas City Chiefs 35

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.14 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 35, worth -1.37 EP
KICK +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 45, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP