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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 67

Tennessee Titans 9 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 8-J.Townsend punts 12 yards to TEN 45, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.72 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP