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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 71

New York Jets 7 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 4-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to TEN 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.48 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.19 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 29, worth -1.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP