4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 19 at the 43

Tennessee Titans 9 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(3:42) 8-J.Townsend punts 30 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.36 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.80 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model