4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 9

New York Jets 7 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(:23) 6-M.Ammendola 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +2.18 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.23 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.58 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model