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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 75

Tennessee Titans 17 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(8:53) 8-J.Townsend punts 41 yards to NYJ 34, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model