4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 60

New York Jets 24 – Tennessee Titans 17

What Actually Happened

(7:07) 4-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TEN 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.08 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -3.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 19, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model