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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 26

Tennessee Titans 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.17 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 26, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 36, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model