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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 50

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(10:15) 8-R.Sanchez punts 38 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

The Three Options

GO -1.28 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.56 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -2.99 EP
KICK -1.67 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model