4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 5

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:39) 9-J.Tucker 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.46 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 5, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.13 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.63 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP