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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 11 at the 37

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Baltimore Ravens 3

What Actually Happened

(:10) (Shotgun) 2-C.Wentz pass short left to 11-M.Pittman to BAL 24 for 13 yards (23-A.Averett) [99-O.Oweh].

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +2.55 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 37, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.00 EP