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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 69

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 4-S.Koch punts 53 yards to IND 16, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.29 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 69, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 27, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model