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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 2 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(:19) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to IND 8, Center-46-N.Moore. 21-N.Hines to IND 21 for 13 yards (21-B.Stephens, 57-K.Welch).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.84 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP