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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 50

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(10:50) 6-J.Hekker punts 33 yards to SEA 17, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.99 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.76 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP