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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Los Angeles Rams
4th & 1 at the 23
Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7
What Actually Happened
(2:39) 25-S.Michel left guard to SEA 21 for 2 yards (8-C.Dunlap).
The Three Options
GO
+2.76 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.25 EP
- 29% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.93 EP
KICK
+1.38 EP
- 88% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 12% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 33, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT
-0.45 EP
- Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
