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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 2 at the 13

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 7

What Actually Happened

(1:12) 8-M.Gay 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +2.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.84 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 13, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.10 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 23, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP