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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 5 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(12:29) 6-J.Hekker punts 52 yards to SEA 12, Center-42-M.Orzech. 18-F.Swain to SEA 25 for 13 yards (42-M.Orzech).

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.76 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP