Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 59

Seattle Seahawks 7 – Los Angeles Rams 9

(7:02) 4-M.Dickson punts 52 yards to LA 7, Center-69-T.Ott. 15-T.Atwell to LA 18 for 11 yards (59-J.Rhattigan).

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP

39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 59, worth -3.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model