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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 3 at the 43

Seattle Seahawks 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 4-M.Dickson punts 31 yards to LA 12, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO +1.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.62 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 43, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.30 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 12, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP