4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 14

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Los Angeles Rams 23

What Actually Happened

(2:49) 5-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.65 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 14, worth -0.34 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model