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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 8 at the 64

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(2:17) 6-J.Hekker punts 48 yards to SEA 16, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 18-F.Swain.

The Three Options

GO -1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.81 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 64, worth -2.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 22, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model