4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 7 at the 29

Los Angeles Rams 23 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(:30) 8-M.Gay 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-6-J.Hekker.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.51 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 29, worth -0.20 EP
KICK +2.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 39, worth -0.43 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model