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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 85

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 3

What Actually Happened

(14:10) 9-R.Dixon punts 50 yards to DAL 35, Center-58-C.Kreiter, downed by NYG-31-K.Crossen.

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.42 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 85, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.46 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 43, worth -2.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP