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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 13 at the 33

New York Giants 10 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(11:18) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.54 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 33, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 43, worth -2.31 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model