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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 36

New York Giants 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 5-G.Gano 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.75 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 36, worth -2.25 EP
KICK +0.21 EP
What Happened
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.94 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model