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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 13

Dallas Cowboys 34 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(1:57) 2-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +3.14 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model