4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 12

Dallas Cowboys 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 2-G.Zuerlein 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.96 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 12, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 22, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model