Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 13 at the 77

Carolina Panthers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

(7:53) 3-J.Charlton punts 44 yards to PHI 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.90 EP
65% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 77, worth -4.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model