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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 79

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:46) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to CAR 38, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.14 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 36, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model