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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 25

Carolina Panthers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(2:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +0.69 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.32 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.36 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model