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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 2 at the 46

Carolina Panthers 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(:39) 3-J.Charlton punts 30 yards to PHI 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.22 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 46, worth -1.57 EP
KICK -0.36 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 13, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP