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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 3 at the 31

Carolina Panthers 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 13

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 5-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.23 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.38 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 41, worth -1.90 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP