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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 4 at the 39

Philadelphia Eagles 13 – Carolina Panthers 18

What Actually Happened

(5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.45 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.70 EP
KICK -0.07 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model